Electrofuel supply in Belgium towards carbon neutrality, using EnergyScope TD to study its impact in 2030 and 2050

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco ; Jeanmart, Hervé

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil mécanicien, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

The European Union aims to be carbon neutral by 2050. In less than 30 years the whole energy system must be reviewed in order to replace the nonrenewable sources and technologies by more sustainable ones. Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, are currently the most important primary energy sources. It has the capacity to provide a huge amount of energy and to be easily transported and stored. An alternative to these are electrofuels, produced from renewable energy sources. The carbon dioxide emitted from their combustion was captured beforehand to produce them, which makes the entire life-cycle carbon neutral. These molecules would maintain the benefits while significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and without having to change all existing fossil fuel based technologies. Solar and wind energy will be important sources for the electrofuel production. However, their potential is limited and there may be a shortage in several countries of the EU. This is why it is necessary to adopt energy exchanges with countries with sufficient renewable potential, using electrofuels as energy carrier. In this study the particular case of Belgium is analysed through EnergyScope Typical Days, a wholeenergy system model. It optimises the total cost based on the emission targets set by the EU for 2030 and 2050. The import of electrofuels from abroad is considered with two approaches : (1) existing agreements and articles that affirm these exchanges, (2) the renewable energy potential of the exporting countries. Different electrofuel supply scenarios are illustrated through case studies. The technologies and the end-use demands that they supply are highlighted to understand their integration in the whole energy system. This is followed by a discussion on the availability of electrofuels and alternative solutions to meet the energy demand. It results that electrofuels will contribute in large part to the transition towards carbon neutrality. Especially, it will become a main resource for the non-energy demand and the mobility sector by 2030. However, the predicted supply is rather uncertain, which could jeopardise the whole transition.