Are regions more exposed to employment volatility and trade shocks more inclined to vote for populism ? Study case of France.

Details

Supervisors

Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale, à finalité approfondie

Abstract

The rise of many populist parties is a common trend across Western Europe, especially of ERPPs (Extreme Right Political Parties). Explanation behind this situation has evolved to take more and more into account the consequence of economic shocks as a potential explanation. Our study invests the link between the increase in the "Rassemblement National" voteshare and an increase in both the employment volatility and import competiton exposure per worker of a region. We use results of the last three presidential election in France as well as trade and employment data. Our results display a positive and significant impact of both independant variables on the RN voteshare, even if it is a relatively small one regarding import competition exposure. Moreover, both impacts had grown from one election to the other suggesting a potential consolidation of RN as the main defender of the "forgotten of globalization".