Modeling 2018-2020 North Kivu and Ituri Ebola Outbreak

Details

Supervisors

Speybroeck, Niko

Faculty

Faculté de santé publique

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences de la santé publique

Abstract

Ebola virus disease (EVD) may result in acute haemorrhagic fever with an elevated case-fatality rate in humans (up to 90%). The world’s second largest EVD outbreak took place in North Kivu, and Ituri Provinces (in the Democratic Republic of Congo). This EVD outbreak is the first happening in a conflict zone, for which the adopted strategy was ring vaccination from the start. Mathematical models on infectious disease allow for a better understanding of the communicable diseases spread. This is why, after giving an overview of the different models that have been used to model the 2018-2020 North Kivu and Ituri Ebola outbreak, I modeled the 2018-2020 North Kivu and Ituri outbreak. I described the EVD epidemic using a deterministic SEIRD (Susceptible – Exposed – Infectious – Recovered – Dead) model and fitted the model to two sets of the outbreak reported data (onset and death). Using the maximum likelihood method, I estimated a basic reproduction number at 1.59 and calculated that the immunization coverage of the epidemic was 37%. I found that the implementation of control measures reduced greatly the magnitude of the epidemic. Since epidemics related to zoonotic diseases (such as EVD or Covid-19) are strongly influenced by human behaviour (whether in their emergence or manifestation), mathematical models have an important role to play in the study of their spread and in the better defining of the necessary actions to put in place as a way to better prevent and control them.