ATTENTION/WARNING - NE PAS DÉPOSER ICI/DO NOT SUBMIT HERE

Ceci est la version de TEST de DIAL.mem. Veuillez ne pas soumettre votre mémoire sur ce site mais bien à l'URL suivante: 'https://thesis.dial.uclouvain.be'.
This is the TEST version of DIAL.mem. Please use the following URL to submit your master thesis: 'https://thesis.dial.uclouvain.be'.
 

Bridging positive mathematical programming and econometrics for agricultural policy analysis

Baumert, Josef
(2022)

Files

Baumert_15031901_2022.pdf
  • Open access
  • Adobe PDF
  • 5.02 MB
Download

Details

Supervisors
Bruno Henry de Frahan ; Gaspart, Frédéric
Faculty
Faculté des bioingénieurs
Degree label
Master [120] en sciences agronomiques et industries du vivant
Abstract
It has long been recognized that Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and econometrics can be combined to estimate consistent cost function parameters for agricultural supply analysis. Yet, the literature on Econometric Mathematical Programming (EMP) and its practical applicability is comparably scarce. This thesis methodologically refines a recently proposed EMP modelling framework and then applies it to simulate the introduction of a greenhouse gas emission cap for three major agricultural regions in France. The first-order conditions of a non-linear total net revenue maximization problem are directly employed to estimate the cost function parameters of a model that calibrates to reference values. Error terms are specified as the deviation between the observed and the true values of activity levels, fixed-input levels and fixed-input prices. Then, the developed approach is applied to estimate the cost functions of French dairy, cattle, and crop farms, using panel data from the EU’s Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) for the years 2005-2012. The estimated cost functions are finally used to simulate the introduction of a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cap at regional level and retrieve marginal abatement costs (MAC) as the dual value of the emission constraint, which can be interpreted as the market price of an emission cap-and-trade system. A comparison with MAC estimated by other researchers confirms that the MAC simulated in this thesis are in a reasonable range. While the levels of almost all farm activities are reduced if an emission cap is imposed, the magnitude of the reduction depends on the emissions per unit value and the level of an activity produced by a farm in the reference scenario. The simulations with GHG emission caps reveal that reductions in activity levels and GHG emissions fall proportionally more on farms with smaller activity levels than on farms with larger activity levels.