Estimating storm surge and coastal inundation induced by tropical cyclones in the Great Barrier Reef

Details

Supervisors

Hanert, Emmanuel ; Lambrechts, Jonathan

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil mécanicien, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

As the severity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is likely to increase and the sea level rises due to climate change, destructive storm surges are expected to be more frequent. It becomes increasingly important to be able to forecast their impact. The use of reliable storm surge models will be a valuable resource in the effort to predict the consequences of a cyclone making landfall. Northern Australia, situated near the southern tropical line, is subject to numerous TCs, formed in warm waters. In this study we focus on the coastal area around the Great Barrier Reef in northern Australia, which is also of special interest due to its bathymetry and the seabed rugosity. We analyze through a set of simulations the case of cyclone Yasi, a category 5 TC which hit this area in 2011. We use the 2D SLIM (Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice-ocean Model) hydrodynamic model with a wetting and drying setup to estimate the storm surge and coastal inundation induced by cyclone Yasi. The results obtained show that SLIM performs well under certain circumstances: the wind speed and atmospheric pressure profiles must be constructed with a cyclone model such as Holland’s and the simulation mesh needs to be sufficiently refined near the coast and along the cyclone track. As SLIM might be used for large-scale modeling of storm surges, we highlight the interaction between tide and storm surge. The model presents a few limitations but overall it shows potential for future applications in storm surge modeling.