Contino, FrancescoClaux, NicolasNicolasClaux2025-02-042025-02-042022https://dial-mem.test.bib.ucl.ac.be/handle/123456789/28524This thesis is focused on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy systems, and especially on the production of electricity in France in 2020. This subject is directly linked with the field of electricity production (or load) forecasting. Such a forecasting can be complex to make because of events that can modify the trend of the electricity production : wars, stock market crashes, pandemics, terrorist attacks, etc. Although the COVID-19 pandemic is the subject of this thesis, the work done here can be applied for another type of event. In this thesis, after a brief contextualization of the COVID-19 pandemic in France and of its impact on the electricity production, a general forecasting model is presented. This model is able to forecast the production for the whole year 2020 and it is then used in a dynamic system to include the shock due to the COVID-19. This is followed by a discussion of the method used and a qualitative analysis of this shock. The results obtained and the analysis made can be added to the already existing works about the forecasting of economic shocks.EnergyElectriciy productionCOVID-19ForecastingShock Forecastingtext::thesis::master thesisthesis:37790