Prospective analysis of the degree of food self-sufficiency in the province of Chumbivilcas, Peru

Details

Supervisors

Baret, Philippe ; Courtois, Anne-Maud

Faculty

Faculté des bioingénieurs

Degree label

Master [120] : bioingénieur en sciences agronomiques, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

The question of the sustainability of food systems has been accentuated over the years with many global and local challenges emerging. At the global level, international crisis, climate change, and political inefficiency have led to strong levels of food insecurity. At the scale of Chumbivilcas, social conflict, topography, and inefficient decentralization process have led to a vulnerable food system. Food self-sufficiency is a powerful tool that brings more resilience and strengthens local actors' power (Al-Abdelmalek et al., 2023). This thesis aims to analyze the capacity of Chumbivilcas province to feed its population with its own domestic productions. The question is answered at the descriptive and prospective scales. The descriptive approach presents the current situation, while the prospective approach provides potential trajectories for the territory's self-sufficiency by 2050. To this end, three prospective scenarios were constructed: traditional, agroecological, and industrial. The results show contrasting levels of self-sufficiency. On the one hand, the products most subject to external dependence In Chumbivilcas are poultry, eggs, fruits, and rice. On the other hand, self-sufficiency is exceeded in beef meat, milk, cereals, and Andes cultures. Scenarios for the evolution of self-sufficiency showed that three drivers of change would mainly determine food supply: water availability, crop diversification, and intensification in production. In addition, future food demand will be influenced by a 22% decrease in population by 2050, and potentially by raising awareness of what a sustainable diet should be for human and environmental health. Based on these changes, prospective scenarios were explored to understand the extent to which each of them could bring more sustainability to local FS. From a scientific and external point of view, this thesis aspires to be a tool for experts and governments in the decision-making process. It gives food for thought on which trajectory their FS could go according to different scenarios, challenges, and possibilities.