Pathway towards energy sustainability in Belgium under uncertainties

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco ; Jeanmart, Hervé

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil mécanicien, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

This work analyses optimal pathways towards a sustainable energy system by 2050 in Belgium. The energy pathway model EnergyScope Pathway is used to optimise the Belgium energy transition. This work improved this model to start the transition from 2020 and model the transition more realistically. With this model, the optimal Belgium energy transition for four scenarios are analysed to understand how to transit towards energy sustainability and how Belgium could adapt in different contexts. For example, the nuclear phase-out in Belgium is analysed to understand how nuclear power plants could help the Belgium energy transition. Another pathway model was developed in this work, Simplified EnergyScope Pathway, which is an accurate approximation of EnergyScope Pathway and is 5 times faster. This model is coupled with a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method in order to analyse the uncertainty on the Belgium energy transition. The mean and variance of the Belgium transition cost are computed to define the cost range to expect, and the uncertain parameters influencing the most the uncertainty of the Belgium energy transition are analysed. A robust optimisation of the Belgium energy transition is then performed with a novel robust optimisation framework, presented in this work. This framework is used to identify some technologies that can make the Belgium energy transition more robust to uncertainties.