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Development of a Simplified Dynamics Emulator and Investigation of Cascading Collapses of the AMOC and the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Climate Model

Laridon, Amaury
(2024)

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Laridon_39611800_2024.pdf
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Details

Supervisors
Crucifix, Michel
Faculty
Faculté des sciences
Degree label
Master [120] en sciences physiques, à finalité approfondie
Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) are two major components of the climate system. They are also considered tipping elements, meaning they possess tipping points, which are critical thresholds beyond which a disturbance can lead to abrupt and irreversible collapse. Due to stabilizing and destabilizing interactions between these two tipping elements, cascading collapse phenomena, also known as domino effects, can occur. This thesis seeks to answer the question of how a realistic coupling between the AMOC and GIS impacts their respective collapse dynamics. The chosen methodology involves constructing a simplified nonlinear dynamics model and developing a calibration method to adjust this simplified model to the sensitivity experiments of the AMOC and GIS derived from complex models. By doing so, the created emulator, both simplified and realistic, allows for a more precise study and better constraint of the cascading collapse dynamics between the AMOC and GIS. Given the importance of the GIS and AMOC on climate, this suggests useful trajectories in terms of adaptation and mitigation policies.