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Foucart_63071700_2024.pdf
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- Wildfires are a complex and dangerous phenomenon that require specific conditions to occur. In Europe, they are predominantly ignited by human activity. In Belgium, a few wildfires have been observed in recent years, but due to their low frequency, very little literature exists on fire prevention specific to the country. Remote sensing has been proposed as a cost-effective method to study wildfire probability. By using monthly Land Surface Temperature (LST) data and biweekly NDVI data obtained from NASA’s MODIS instruments, it is possible to calculate the Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), an effective measure for detecting dried-up vegetation. A new index, the Fire Behaviour Composite Index (FBCI), has been developed by combining LST, NDVI, TVDI, and fuel load data. Recent research indicates that this index assesses whether an area has the physical properties necessary for a fire to ignite and spread. By incorporating human factors such as the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) and the road network, a fire danger map is created to pinpoint locations where fire conditions are met, and human presence is high. Analyzing the temporal and spatial variations over the last 24 years in different areas of the High Fens demonstrated that the FBCI holds promise. However, the general lack of historical wildfire events in the High Fens requires further research to fully evaluate the viability of this index. Given the nature of wildfires and the limitations of satellite observations, such validation is challenging, and several alternative approaches could be explored to improve the results. Nevertheless, remote sensing remains a promising tool for identifying the times and locations where wildfire conditions align, offering valuable support to firefighters and park managers alike.