The development of autonomous vehicles: adoption scenarios and impact on the automotive industry

Details

Supervisors

Coeurderoy, Régis

Faculty

Louvain School of Management

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences de gestion

Abstract

The automotive industry will drastically change with the emergence of autonomous vehicles. The main objective of this Master’s Thesis is summarized by our global research question, which states “At what pace will autonomous vehicle technology be adopted and how will the automotive industry landscape change with the arrival of this innovation?”. We first reviewed existing literature on this subject and elaborated a theoretical model based on the impact of four factors on the pace of diffusion of autonomous vehicle technology. These are (1) the previous diffusion of advanced driver assistance systems; (2) the increased performance of artificial intelligence; (3) the increased number of accidents of autonomous vehicles and (4) the resistance of sceptic original equipment manufacturers. The first two factors are believed to have a positive impact, while the two latter rather a negative impact. An empirical study on the automotive industry was then conducted. We defined four sub-purposes, each related to a different perspective: the adoption, acceptance, social and competition perspectives. We then carried out a multiple case study through a qualitative research approach and performed six semi-structured interviews to gather qualitative data. The outcome of our analysis led us to drafting a revisited model of the adoption of autonomous vehicles. This proposed four scenarios depending on the impact that the four factors have on the pace of adoption of autonomous vehicle technology. Throughout our empirical study, we enriched our theoretical model by reviewing its second factor: we realized that consumers’ acceptance of artificial intelligence plays a crucial role in the adoption of autonomous vehicles, together with its increasing performance. We conclude that autonomous vehicles could be adopted at different paces, depending on the scenario that will materialize as a result of the four factors identified. Several implications of the adoption of autonomous vehicles on the automotive industry were identified. First, the arrival of competitors from outside the industry, especially tech & communication companies. Second, the increased offer and demand for mobility services and the threat for the traditional business model of automakers based on selling cars. Third, the potential change in organizational structures of traditional players of the automobile industry, with many jobs that are likely to disappear and others that will probably appear instead.