Robust evaluation of energy transition policies : a new system modeling approach based on the integration of social acceptance studies

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil électromécanicien, à finalité spécialisée: énergie

Abstract

The influence of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions due to human activity on climate change are unequivocal. As energy consumption is mainly responsible (not solely) for these emissions, changing our energy system (production, consumption, and management) is necessary. However, it is sometimes difficult to predict the social impact and the social acceptance of this transition. In this work, we describe a socio-technical methodology aiming to estimate the potential future of the End-Use Demand (EUD), responsible for energy consumption, based on planned behavior theory and social practice theory. The new EUD is obtained by a statistical analysis of the social acceptance of practice changes obtained from a survey on a specific behavior/practice. This methodology provides a robust estimation of the emissions cut resulting from a defined transition scenario based on social acceptance rather than "what if" assumptions. The cross-sectional approach, as general as possible, is used to evaluate the potential GHG emissions cut from commuting to work by inhabitants of Walloon Brabant which is massively dominated by cars responsible for more than 90% of these trips’ emissions. It has been found that most workers are in favor of using an alternative mode to the car. The lack of flexibility, accessibility, and infrastructure for these alternatives are the main reasons for the automobile’s dominance. This is highlighted by the strong correlation between car use and the level of accessibility of the place of residence and/or work. A structured public transport network combined with soft modes of transport emerges as the most popular solution. The deployment of such a network should lead to an effective reduction of emissions from commuting between 14.5% and 24% with an estimated cost per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) avoided between 125€ and 300€, which is about 6 times cheaper than a scenario of switching to electric cars. The gap between opinion and action is a key factor in the transition regarding changing the population’s behavior. It requires monitoring of measures throughout their implementation to maximize their impact.