Impact assessment of the development program 2SCALE on smallholder farmers in Kenya

Details

Supervisors

Gaspart, Frédéric

Faculty

Faculté des bioingénieurs

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences agronomiques et industries du vivant, à finalité spécialisée: Agricultural, Food and Environmental Policy Analysis

Abstract

Poverty and food security remain pressing challenges in rural Kenya, where smallholder farmers are highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks. This study evaluates the impact of the 2SCALE program, a development initiative aimed at improving the livelihoods of smallholder sorghum farmers, using rigorous survey data collected in 2015 and 2017. Employing a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression and a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework, the analysis addresses endogeneity and assesses the program's effects on production and income. The findings reveal that the 2SCALE intervention significantly increased sorghum production, with cultivated area, treatment, and target area identified as key drivers. However, the program's impact on income was statistically insignificant in the short term. Factors such as cultivated area, access to credit, education, and gender significantly influenced income, while intercropping and average price negatively affected production. These results highlight the complexity of smallholder decision-making, with income gains potentially requiring sustained support and complementary interventions to fully materialize. The study underscores the importance of well-designed development programs and robust impact assessments in addressing rural poverty and food insecurity. By identifying key determinants of productivity and income, this research offers actionable insights for enhancing agricultural resilience and improving the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on rural development, emphasizing the need for policies that balance immediate production gains with long-term sustainability and inclusive growth.