Multi-criteria comparative assessment of viable feedstocks for bioethanol production in Belgium : the case of wheat, sugar beet, miscanthus, and forest residue

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil électromécanicien, à finalité spécialisée: énergie

Abstract

The purpose of this master thesis is to conduct a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to determine the most sustainable scenario for bioethanol production in Belgium according to decision-makers’ preferences. Two environmental criteria (water footprint and global warming potential), two techno-economic criteria (energy return on investment and levelized cost of fuel), and one social criterion (public acceptance) form the basis of this assessment. Once the criteria are determined, a MCDA method that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to prioritize the alternatives. The AHP is used to determine the weights of the criteria (eight weight distributions are studied), then the TOPSIS method is used to rank the different bioethanol options. The proposed method evaluates four bioethanol production scenarios, i.e. four feedstocks viable for bioethanol production (wheat, sugar beet, miscanthus, and forest residue). Miscanthus-based bioethanol is regarded as the sustainable alternative in most of the cases studied, with bioethanol from forest residue coming second. Bioethanol derived from wheat and sugar beet is considered a sustainable solution when the levelized cost of fuel criterion is given a higher weight than the remaining criteria. The suggested method is generic, meaning that other alternatives can be studied. The main contribution of this master thesis is to combine quantitative criteria with a qualitative criterion in a MCDA method to assess the most sustainable alternative among four bioethanol production scenarios. The proposed method enables to determine the outcome of decision-making based on the preferences of different stakeholders, through the use of different weight distributions.