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Bitcoin vs Gold : who’s best at diversifying risk

(2023)

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JACMIN_26141800_2023.pdf
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  • 3.48 MB

JACMIN_26141800_2023_APPENDIX1.pdf
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Abstract
When constructing a financial portfolio, whether as an independent or institutional actor, one must contend with a degree of risk. There are several methodologies that can be utilized to address this issue. The present study shall be centered on the examination of both Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall through the utilization of both parametric and non-parametric methodologies. The primary objective of this inquiry is to undertake an investigation into the risk measures of four portfolios that are representations of national economies, namely those of Belgium, Switzerland, Argentina, and Turkey. In this study, I will incorporate either bitcoin or gold into each of the portfolios in equivalent proportions to determine which asset yields a superior mitigating effect on risk. The temporal scope of the investigation pertains to the period spanning 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2022, during which data was gathered on a daily basis. All estimators will be subjected to evaluation at four distinct probability thresholds, namely 90%, 95%, 97. 5%, and 99%. Subsequently, the accuracy of the estimates shall be ascertained through the process of backtesting. The findings indicate that there is no observable evidence of Bitcoin affording a noteworthy advantage over gold with regard to mitigating risk across the examined cases. Contrarily, gold may lead to a more significant diminution of the VaR than bitcoin in certain scenarios in Belgium and Turkey. When examining the impact on the ES, empirical evidence suggests that gold exhibits a greater capacity for reducing risks in certain instances within Switzerland and Turkey compared to bitcoin.