Geopolitical changes and their effects on migration

Details

Supervisors

Docquier, Frédéric

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale

Abstract

This thesis explores the effects of geopolitical changes on migration. We are going to make a calibration of bilateral migration data of the year 2010 and simulate diverse shocks on the existing migration flows. Using a random utility model, we calibrate wages and migration costs to match migration stocks and rates from 195 source to 195 destination countries. We find that generally, when a country decides to suspend all immigration, the countries close to this destination see their emigration rates decrease. When a country decides to open up to immigration, we find that the emigration rates of countries with geographical proximity or with a community already living at the destination increase. When there is a social conflict at a destination, we find that migration to this particular area will decrease, while emigration to countries close to this region, or to regions with a common history increases. A climate change resulting in a productivity change leads to dispersion in emigration rates, while the migration to northern countries increases and to southern countries decreases.