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Ultra-Poor BRAC Graduation Program: a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Impact Evaluation

(2021)

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DeBundel_87691900_2021.pdf
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DeBundel_87691900_2021_Appendix1.zip
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Abstract
What is the average impact of the BRAC Ultra-Poor Graduation program? Despite numerous impact studies, the debate remains partly unsettled because of the important heterogeneity in program effects across different places. In this thesis, I apply Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling on a dataset that includes six Graduation pilots to jointly estimate this heterogeneity and the average effects of the intervention. I find an important true variability in effect across places and use it to estimate the realistic average impact as well as site-specific program effect. I find that the cross-pilots effectiveness of the intervention is not as statistically significative as previously thought. The analysis highlights the limited external validity of the site effect estimates.

Citations

De Bundel, F. (2021). Ultra-Poor BRAC Graduation Program: a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Impact Evaluation. https://dial-mem.test.bib.ucl.ac.be/handle/2078.2/25845