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Ultra-Poor BRAC Graduation Program: a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Impact Evaluation

De Bundel, Florian
(2021)

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DeBundel_87691900_2021.pdf
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DeBundel_87691900_2021_Appendix1.zip
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Details

Supervisors
Parienté, William
Faculty
Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication
Degree label
Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale, à finalité spécialisée
Abstract
What is the average impact of the BRAC Ultra-Poor Graduation program? Despite numerous impact studies, the debate remains partly unsettled because of the important heterogeneity in program effects across different places. In this thesis, I apply Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling on a dataset that includes six Graduation pilots to jointly estimate this heterogeneity and the average effects of the intervention. I find an important true variability in effect across places and use it to estimate the realistic average impact as well as site-specific program effect. I find that the cross-pilots effectiveness of the intervention is not as statistically significative as previously thought. The analysis highlights the limited external validity of the site effect estimates.