Internal migration and urbanisation in Mali, Niger Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire between 1960 and 1993: A comparative analysis of migration patterns.

Details

Supervisors

Bocquier, Philippe ; Menashe Oren, Ashira

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master de spécialisation en méthodes quantitatives en sciences sociales

Abstract

This study make use of the REMUAO data and survival analysis methods to compare first internal migration of men and women between Mali, Niger, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal between 1960-1993. Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence function were used to describe the data, while the Cox proportional hazard and Fine and Gay semi-parametric methods were used for in-depth analyses. Marital status, education level, employment and date (periods) were modelled to study their influence on the risk of first migration and urbanisation across all studies countries. The study reveals that the risk of first internal migration was significantly increased in the 1980s compared to the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1990s. Both men and women had significant and increasing positive risk of migration, particularly from rural areas to urban areas. While men showed a rising risk primarily in rural-urban and urban-urban migration, women’s risk of migrating was positive and increasing across all flows, including rural-rural migration. Educated, single, and unemployed or self-employed individuals showed significantly higher and increasing risk, especially for rural-urban migration, compared to non-educated, married, and employed individuals. Marital status consistently had a negative effect on migration risk across all countries, even when correlated with employment status. Côte d’Ivoire demonstrated the most significant increase in the risk migration across all flows, largely driven by women. Senegal and Mali were found to be in the second phase of urban transition, while Niger appeared to be in the first phase and transitioning toward the second stage. Côte d’Ivoire alone seemed to have begun the third phase of urban transition in the 1980s-1990s.