Analysis of the impact of climate change on wind resources in Belgium.

Details

Supervisors

Massonnet, François

Faculty

Faculté des sciences

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences physiques, à finalité approfondie

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on wind resources in Belgium, providing a comprehensive analysis of historical wind data and projected future changes using climate models. Historical data from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and ground-based sensors were used to examine trends in wind speed, direction, and distribution. The analysis reveals seasonal variations, with higher wind speeds in winter and lower in summer, and a predominant westerly wind regime. Spatial variability was also evident, with coastal areas experiencing higher wind speeds than inland regions. Projections using CMIP6 and EC-Earth3 models under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios indicate nuanced changes in future wind patterns. A slight decrease in mean wind speed is projected, which could impact the overall wind energy potential. For the moment the predictions depend too much on the models used, the lack of reliable data on the wind as well as its high variability makes strict conclusions questionable.