Investigating the Suez Canal and Eastern Mediterranean coastal infrastructures vulnerability to oil spills

Details

Supervisors

Hanert, Emmanuel

Faculty

Faculté des bioingénieurs

Degree label

Master [120] : bioingénieur en sciences et technologies de l'environnement, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

Ninety percent of global trade relies on maritime shipping, and as the exchange of goods across the world continues to increase, the demand for marine shipping has been steadily rising. One of the bottlenecks in maritime trade is the Suez Canal, which leads to high shipping traffic density, posing a significant risk of potential oil spills in the surrounding area. This study investigates the vulnerability of two types of coastal infrastructures in the Eastern Mediterranean Bay : Israel desalination plants and Egypt major ports. The methodology incorporated daily data from 2016 to 2022, considering 5 and 10-day periods with the backward-in-time method to identify potential sources from final coastal locations. Using the Lagrangian oil dispersal model OpenOil, the study simulated the dispersion patterns of oil from the infrastructures investigated. Their vulnerability was quantitatively assessed based on three factors: arrival time, risk probability, and traffic exposure, derived from the model simulations of oil dispersal. This approach facilitated the evaluation of suitable countermeasures to mitigate the risks. The analysis revealed the seasonal variability of risks, with the highest risk observed during the summer months for most of the infrastructures. Specifically, Ashdod and Ashkelon plants ensuring 40% Israel freshwater production, were identified as facing the highest risks. These critical infrastructures are also susceptible to receiving an oil spill from the Gaza EEZ in less than a day, heightening the risks due to the ongoing conflicts. Additionally, Alexandria harbor and Said, the northern port of the Suez Canal, exhibited high traffic exposure, with potential impacts on the Suez Canal passage and Egypt’s economy. Overall, the results underscored the need for targeted prevention and adapted mitigation strategies to protect the infrastructures investigated.