Unequal allocation of planetary boundaries using grandfathering sharing principles. Case study: is transition to renewable energy possible for Belgium’s electricity and heat demand covered by fossil fuels ?

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil électromécanicien, à finalité spécialisée: énergie

Abstract

This study evaluates the uneven sharing of Planetary Boundaries to assess whether traditional downscaling methods, especially the acquired rights sharing principle based on historical CO2 emissions, accurately allocate the safe operating space. The feasibility of transitioning Belgium’s electricity and heat demand covered by fossil fuels to renewable technologies serves as a case study. Four sharing principles—egalitarian, grandfathering or acquired rights, prioritarian, and utilitarian—are developed for downscaling the planetary boundaries from the global level to Belgium and then further to the sector level using the acquired rights sharing principle. The share of the safe operating space for electricity and heat demand, differentiated by exergy factors for low, medium, and high-temperature heat, is estimated. Technological impacts are evaluated using activities from the EcoInvent 3.9 database, and aligned with the Planetary Boundaries framework. Technologies include photovoltaics, onshore and offshore wind, heat pumps for low-temperature heat, and green H2 for medium and high-temperature heat. Impacts are projected for 2030, 2040, and 2050 using SSP1 and SSP2 scenarios. The study finds that freshwater use is more constraining than CO2 for photovoltaics in case of the electricity sector and always for the heat sectors, while nitrogen fixation can be more constraining for heat sectors, highlighting the need for unevenly sharing planetary boundaries. The results indicate that a transition is feasible only with the utilitarian & acquired rights sharing principles, but the installable photovoltaics capacity remains very low because of its high impacts on the planetary boundaries. Therefore, significant impact reductions for photovoltaics are necessary for a realistic transition within the safe operating space.