Prospective life cycle analysis meets energy planning models: and application to the belgian energy system

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil électromécanicien, à finalité spécialisée: énergie

Abstract

Growing concerns about climate change have prompted world leaders to establish and ratify international agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, and the Paris Agreement in 2015. These agreements aim to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to combat climate change. In alignment with these agreements, the European Union has enacted the Climate Act, which legally enforces the targets set by the European Green Deal. These targets include a minimum 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Achieving these goals requires active participation from all sectors of the economy and society. To formulate effective decarbonisation strategies, comprehensive whole-energy models of the energy system are essential. These models analyse the energy system holistically, considering the complex interactions between the demand of different sectors (such as electricity, heating, and mobility), technologies, and energy carriers. While many energy models exist, only a few meet the following characteristics: multi-sector integration, open-source accessibility, reasonable computation time, and fine temporal resolution, which is crucial for accounting for the fluctuating nature of renewable energies and storage operations. The EnergyScope TD model, developed by Limpens et al., satisfies these requirements. This model optimizes the yearly cost and operation of the energy system while constraining GHG emissions. However, the model and its particular application to the Belgian energy system face three major issues: partial quantification of construction emissions, neglect of emissions from imported renewable fuels, and the use of traditional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in the Global Warming Potential (GWP) calculation, which is not well-suited for prospective analysis and large scale applications. To address these issues, a prospective Life Cycle Assessment (pLCA) approach was adopted for quantifying the construction emissions of the different technologies. This was achieved by modifying the ecoinvent database using the premise Python library coupled with Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios, and the Activity Browser LCA tool alongside its 'scenario analysis’ setup. Concerning the operation emissions of renewable synthetic fuels, data from the literature were taken and kept constant over the transition. The impact of this re-quantification is studied over the 2020, 2035, and 2050 Belgian energy systems, using two different IAM scenarios. This analysis provides insights into the implications of employing pLCA over historical LCA methodology for assessing GHG emissions in future energy systems.