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A review of modelling techniques for transportation in Europe and application of a policy assessment for Engie

Calloud de Faudeur, Jérémy
(2015)

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CallouddeFaudeur71210800-2015.pdf
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Details

Supervisors
Agrell, Per Joakim
Faculty
Louvain School of Management
Degree label
Master [120] en Ingénieur de gestion
Abstract
The decarbonization and reduction of the greenhouse gases emissions of road transportation in Europe have become ineluctable in the context of the global warming. Not only new technologies but also new policies and measures are changing the face of the transport market. Regulators, automakers and utility companies are all interested in understanding and quantifying the forthcoming changes. The paper at hand reviews five widely used transport models as well as the different drivers and modelling techniques of both the demand forecast and the fleet mix. We use ASTRA-EC to develop long-term projections for Engie, taking full advantage the company’s expertise in energy to improve the database. Our sensitivity analysis on the drivers reveals a strong decoupling of the demand from the gross domestic product while the importance of fuel prices is well represented by the multinomial logit function of the model. The heterogeneity of the fleet mix projections per country reflects the actual regulatory framework in Europe. This thesis will provide Engie not only with robust tailor-made projections of the future of road transportation but also with great knowledge about the different modelling techniques of transport models.