Determining the optimal location of remote renewable energy hubs for importing hydrogen to Belgium

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil mécanicien, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

The transition to a low-carbon economy requires innovative approaches to the development and distribution of alternative fuels, such as green hydrogen. While the identification of the main regions for optimal hydrogen production on a country-scale is gaining interest, the allocation of exact locations within a country remains limited. Moreover, the location allocation is mainly driven by subjective weights and importances subject to bias of stakeholders. Therefore, this thesis explores a robust location allocation method for optimal remote renewable energy hubs aimed at producing green hydrogen and exporting it to Belgium. By using a robust Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) integrated with a Monte Carlo simulation, the inherent uncertainties and subjective biases in traditional decision-making processes are addressed. Our case study focuses on Morocco, a country with substantial potential for solar and wind energy. We evaluate three scenarios: exporting hydrogen via seaports, via pipelines and non-export-focused production. Thanks to the insights of DEME Group, the research identifies critical criteria such as renewable energy potential, proximity to infrastructure, and exclusion zones, reclassifying these factors into standardized scores for comprehensive analysis. The robust AHP methodology, facilitates a more reliable assessment by generating stochastic weight distributions for each criterion. While the southern regions are preferable for maximizing renewable energy production without export considerations, the best locations for other scenarios are located more in the north to be closer to seaports or pipeline connection. The analysis of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) ensure that selected locations maintain high suitability with minimal probability to score below the minimum acceptable performance. Moreover, the inclusion of uncertainty allows to make a trade-off between locations with high performance in specific conditions—but fragile when the importance on the inputs vary—and locations with stable performance regardless of the subjectivity in the weights. This thesis contributes to global sustainability goals by proposing a scalable and robust framework for determining optimal locations for green hydrogen production sites. The adaptable nature of this framework allows it to be applied to diverse contexts, making it suitable for any country or region.