Export Concentration and Instability - Revisiting the Evidence with Enhanced Trade Data

Details

Supervisors

Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

Concentration and volatility of exports are central subjects for policymakers as they can have huge impacts on a country's economy. Tracking their evolution is therefore essential for determining trade strategies. By using an enhanced dataset spanning from 1998 to 2022, this thesis replicates and extends the work of Daruich et al. (2019), who analyzed export specializations across multiple countries for the period 1998-2010. The research question is therefore 'How has the instability of export concentration changed since 2010?'. The results reveal that export concentration remains high, with the top 20 goods accounting for an average of 75.77% of total exports in 2022, compared to 73.56% in 2010. Additionally, the stability of top exports is only slightly improving compared to the previous period but remains high for all countries. The analysis highlights that wealthier countries tend to have more diversified exports in both periods, while the gap between low- and medium-growth countries regarding instability is decreasing in the recent years. This thesis aims to confirm and enhance the robustness of the original findings of the reference paper by replicating the author's methodology. It underscores the importance of replication in scientific research, enhancing the robustness of economic methodologies, and offers suggestions for future research.